Early Christianity Essay Example for Free

Early Christianity Essay Christianity is one of the biggest religions in the world and is followed mostly all over the world. One of the first of the Christians was the followers of Jesus Christ, a Jew, who taught the way to live for each and every individual. He taught the concept that he is raised from dead that made people to consider the divine. He was celestial and showed people the way to deliverance. This concept increased the number of christens in the Rome and at the end of the fourth century it became the utter religion of the Rome. What were the reasons for the fast spread of Christianity? There were a number of them. Mostly because of the teachings of Jesus, as it tells that there should be love in between all the human beings and there should be equality as well. This encouraged the poor and needy ones to convert. His concept of life after death attracted the people who were feared of there deaths. Decent revolution was another reason for all to be attracted; no matter they are poor or rich. Now what were the diverging views of the roman and Christens? Romans have a concept that a person should live a best possible life in this world and should live a luxurious care free life where as Christianity was not having this concept. According to them a person should live through deliverance so that they could have the best of the life after death. Greek have some valid reason which actually made the Christens to think that was intelligence is through lonely time. This threatened christens that there followers might decrease. This was when church interpretation came into act so that the right thing should be guide and what is the real meaning of bible should be examined. Our acts can not save us from the fire of hell. It is only the teachings of the Jesus which can actually save us from the hell which could make us enter the heavenly life after death. What was the origin of the unity of the human race? What was the origin of human sinfulness? According to Augustine it was the teachings of the Jesus Christ which actually was the origin of the unity of the human race. Jesus taught them that there will be no inequality between the poor and the rich and they are equal to the God. They should live for salvation instead of pleasure. They should love each other and should give respect to each other. No richer people have right to be superior and no poor are inferior to the wealthier one. All are equal and all are human. The only thing they should care for is the life after death and people should live more for that than this life. This concept actually was the origin of the unity as after this there was unity in all race of human. No blacks were accused of being blacks and no whites were to be superior. This was the main origin of equality in human race. Augustine thinks that the desire of people to live as commanded by God so that they could achieve heaven is the main origin of the human race or human equality. Those who lived for this world and they don’t care of the life after death actually gives birth to the human sinfulness. The desire to be wealthier and to increase the standard of living made human to be sinful. The thought of being better than others increased there sinfulness. This desire made them to do more and more sinfulness and actually origin the word of sinfulness. This actually was origin from roman people who wanted better in this life. What are the two cities, city of God and City of men, according to Augustine? What are there implications on the Christen teachings? There are two cities according to Augustine. City of men means this world that is the world according to which a person is judged. It is the world where you can get your pleasure. Whereas the City of God is the life after death, where a person is judged according to there lives. This is the life of heaven or hell and is immortal whereas city of men is temporary and will be finished when Jesus will come again. City of men is dishonest whereas city of God is ideal. This gives christens the concept of life after death and tells them that everyone is judged according to its deeds. It also tells us that this world in not eternal and will be finished as the Jesus will come where as the life after death is forever so we should care for that life. This gives christens the concept and belief in life after death. Who can measure the happiness of haven? Then it tells about the heaven where all will be happy and satisfied and they will be able to do whatever they want. They can live through there desires. Everywhere will be satisfaction and it is a place of spirits. There would be no evil at all. Later christens started hating Jews as they thought that hating Jews is right. As God hates Jewish people so they also started hating Jews. They stopped going to occasions of Jews. Saints started teaching Christens against Jews and that the Jews are the worst of the people. There is a disease in Jews that may cause some Christian’s attraction towards them. This disease is needed to be cured. Now what is this Disease? This disease is not a medical disease. It is about the ‘Judaizing disease’ that means spreading of Judaism. They are to launch on christens to attend there festival and to fast with them. Some of the Christens who thinks that Jews have the same thinking as they have will go for it and will attend there festivals. This will cause people to accept Judaism. This is the fear of some christens and they wanted this disease to be finished. The disease is the spreading of Judaism not any medical disease and it should be finished with the help of the teachings of Bible by saints.

hitlers willing executioners :: essays research papers

Daniel Jonah Goldhagen born in 1959 is an American political scientist most famous for his book, Hitler's Willing Executioners: Ordinary Germans and the Holocaust, which hypothesizes that all ordinary Germans were actively in favor of the holocaust because of the supposedly unique and virulent "eliminationist" anti-Semitism that was a part of the common consciousness in Germany throughout history. He claims that this special mentality cannot be fully understood by non-Germans and that it was unique to Germany; eliminationist anti-Semitism grew out of medieval attitudes that were religiously based. Later they became more secularly based, but the anti-Semitism remained the same. Goldhagen holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Harvard University and was a professor at Harvard for many years. He is the winner of Germany’s highly prestigious triennial Democracy Prize and currently a member of Harvard's Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies. In the book Hitler’s Willing Executioners, Daniel Goldhagen uses primary and secondary sources. Goldhagen traces origin & scrutinizes essence of anti-Semitism from its origins over 1,000 years ago, manifest in non-Jewish Christian civilization at beginning of the Crusades (Jews characterized as non-Christian Christ killers); throughout the Middle Ages into early modern Europe. He gives a clear insight of how Jews were tortured describing every gruesome detail. Though Goldhagen utilizes many original sources, some sources seem to come from his head. For example: The author titled the book Hitler’s â€Å"Willing† Executioners assuming that all Nazi’s were enthusiastic to kill Jews. It seems as though he carefully gathered all the information he could find about the Holocaust to make this piece of art into such a great novel. He allows the reader to comprehend how he fells personally about different situations mentioned throughout the book. Though he states his opinion on several occurrences throughout the book, he backs them up with credible facts. Hitler’s Willing Executioners is well written, easy to read and clearly defined. The issue is not the fact that the Germans were anti-Semitic, but rather that any human or group of humans could turn against a group of people so vehemently and so horribly. The vocabulary is somewhat easy to comprehend. Goldhagen's thesis, which he rides awfully hard, is that ordinary Germans were quite likely to be anti-Semitic because anti-Semitism, abetted by the Nazi high command, so thoroughly pervaded German culture. Goldhagen's account is centered on events in World War II and does not, foreground his thesis.

A Game of Thrones Chapter Two

Catelyn Catelyn had never liked this godswood. She had been born a Tully, at Riverrun far to the south, on the Red Fork of the Trident. The godswood there was a garden, bright and airy, where tall redwoods spread dappled shadows across tinkling streams, birds sang from hidden nests, and the air was spicy with the scent of flowers. The gods of Winterfell kept a different sort of wood. It was a dark, primal place, three acres of old forest untouched for ten thousand years as the gloomy castle rose around it. It smelled of moist earth and decay. No redwoods grew here. This was a wood of stubborn sentinel trees armored in grey-green needles, of mighty oaks, of ironwoods as old as the realm itself. Here thick black trunks crowded close together while twisted branches wove a dense canopy overhead and misshappen roots wrestled beneath the soil. This was a place of deep silence and brooding shadows, and the gods who lived here had no names. But she knew she would find her husband here tonight. Whenever he took a man's life, afterward he would seek the quiet of the godswood. Catelyn had been anointed with the seven oils and named in the rainbow of light that filled the sept of Riverrun. She was of the Faith, like her father and grandfather and his father before him. Her gods had names, and their faces were as familiar as the faces of her parents. Worship was a septon with a censer, the smell of incense, a seven-sided crystal alive with light, voices raised in song. The Tullys kept a godswood, as all the great houses did, but it was only a place to walk or read or lie in the sun. Worship was for the sept. For her sake, Ned had built a small sept where she might sing to the seven faces of god, but the blood of the First Men still flowed in the veins of the Starks, and his own gods were the old ones, the nameless, faceless gods of the greenwood they shared with the vanished children of the forest. At the center of the grove an ancient weirwood brooded over a small pool where the waters were black and cold. â€Å"The heart tree,† Ned called it. The weirwood's bark was white as bone, its leaves dark red, like a thousand bloodstained hands. A face had been carved in the trunk of the great tree, its features long and melancholy, the deep-cut eyes red with dried sap and strangely watchful. They were old, those eyes; older than Winterfell itself. They had seen Brandon the Builder set the first stone, if the tales were true; they had watched the castle's granite walls rise around them. It was said that the children of the forest had carved the faces in the trees during the dawn centuries before the coming of the First Men across the narrow sea. In the south the last weirwoods had been cut down or burned out a thousand years ago, except on the Isle of Faces where the green men kept their silent watch. Up here it was different. Here every castle had its godswood, and every godswood had its heart tree, and every heart tree its face. Catelyn found her husband beneath the weirwood, seated on a moss-covered stone. The greatsword Ice was across his lap, and he was cleaning the blade in those waters black as night. A thousand years of humus lay thick upon the godswood floor, swallowing the sound of her feet, but the red eyes of the weirwood seemed to follow her as she came. â€Å"Ned,† she called softly. He lifted his head to look at her. â€Å"Catelyn,† he said. His voice was distant and formal. â€Å"Where are the children?† He would always ask her that. â€Å"In the kitchen, arguing about names for the wolf pups.† She spread her cloak on the forest floor and sat beside the pool, her back to the weirwood. She could feel the eyes watching her, but she did her best to ignore them. â€Å"Arya is already in love, and Sansa is charmed and gracious, but Rickon is not quite sure.† â€Å"Is he afraid?† Ned asked. â€Å"A little,† she admitted. â€Å"He is only three.† Ned frowned. â€Å"He must learn to face his fears. He will not be three forever. And winter is coming.† â€Å"Yes,† Catelyn agreed. The words gave her a chill, as they always did. The Stark words. Every noble house had its words. Family mottoes, touchstones, prayers of sorts, they boasted of honor and glory, promised loyalty and truth, swore faith and courage. All but the Starks. Winter is coming, said the Stark words. Not for the first time, she reflected on what a strange people these northerners were. â€Å"The man died well, I'll give him that,† Ned said. He had a swatch of oiled leather in one hand. He ran it lightly up the greatsword as he spoke, polishing the metal to a dark glow. â€Å"I was glad for Bran's sake. You would have been proud of Bran.† â€Å"I am always proud of Bran,† Catelyn replied, watching the sword as he stroked it. She could see the rippling deep within the steel, where the metal had been folded back on itself a hundred times in the forging. Catelyn had no love for swords, but she could not deny that Ice had its own beauty. It had been forged in Valyria, before the Doom had come to the old Freehold, when the ironsmiths had worked their metal with spells as well as hammers. Four hundred years old it was, and as sharp as the day it was forged. The name it bore was older still, a legacy from the age of heroes, when the Starks were Kings in the North. â€Å"He was the fourth this year,† Ned said grimly. â€Å"The poor man was half-mad. Something had put a fear in him so deep that my words could not reach him.† He sighed. â€Å"Ben writes that the strength of the Night's Watch is down below a thousand. It's not only desertions. They are losing men on rangings as well.† â€Å"Is it the wildlings?† she asked. â€Å"Who else?† Ned lifted Ice, looked down the cool steel length of it. â€Å"And it will only grow worse. The day may come when I will have no choice but to call the banners and ride north to deal with this King-beyond-the-Wall for good and all.† â€Å"Beyond the Wall?† The thought made Catelyn shudder. Ned saw the dread on her face. â€Å"Mance Rayder is nothing for us to fear.† â€Å"There are darker things beyond the Wall.† She glanced behind her at the heart tree, the pale bark and red eyes, watching, listening, thinking its long slow thoughts. His smile was gentle. â€Å"You listen to too many of Old Nan's stories. The Others are as dead as the children of the forest, gone eight thousand years. Maester Luwin will tell you they never lived at all. No living man has ever seen one.† â€Å"Until this morning, no living man had ever seen a direwolf either,† Catelyn reminded him. â€Å"I ought to know better than to argue with a Tully,† he said with a rueful smile. He slid Ice back into its sheath. â€Å"You did not come here to tell me crib tales. I know how little you like this place. What is it, my lady?† Catelyn took her husband's hand. â€Å"There was grievous news today, my lord. I did not wish to trouble you until you had cleansed yourself.† There was no way to soften the blow, so she told him straight. â€Å"I am so sorry, my love. Jon Arryn is dead.† His eyes found hers, and she could see how hard it took him, as she had known it would. In his youth, Ned had fostered at the Eyrie, and the childless Lord Arryn had become a second father to him and his fellow ward, Robert Baratheon. When the Mad King Aerys II Targaryen had demanded their heads, the Lord of the Eyrie had raised his moon-and-falcon banners in revolt rather than give up those he had pledged to protect. And one day fifteen years ago, this second father had become a brother as well, as he and Ned stood together in the sept at Riverrun to wed two sisters, the daughters of Lord Hoster Tully. â€Å"Jon . . . † he said. â€Å"Is this news certain?† â€Å"It was the king's seal, and the letter is in Robert's own hand. I saved it for you. He said Lord Arryn was taken quickly. Even Maester Pycelle was helpless, but he brought the milk of the poppy, so Jon did not linger long in pain.† â€Å"That is some small mercy, I suppose,† he said. She could see the grief on his face, but even then he thought first of her. â€Å"Your sister,† he said. â€Å"And Jon's boy. What word of them?† â€Å"The message said only that they were well, and had returned to the Eyrie,† Catelyn said. â€Å"I wish they had gone to Riverrun instead. The Eyrie is high and lonely, and it was ever her husband's place, not hers. Lord Jon's memory will haunt each stone. I know my sister. She needs the comfort of family and friends around her.† â€Å"Your uncle waits in the Vale, does he not? Jon named him Knight of the Gate, I'd heard.† Catelyn nodded. â€Å"Brynden will do what he can for her, and for the boy. That is some comfort, but still . . . â€Å" â€Å"Go to her,† Ned urged. â€Å"Take the children. Fill her halls with noise and shouts and laughter. That boy of hers needs other children about him, and Lysa should not be alone in her grief.† â€Å"Would that I could,† Catelyn said. â€Å"The letter had other tidings. The king is riding to Winterfell to seek you out.† It took Ned a moment to comprehend her words, but when the understanding came, the darkness left his eyes. â€Å"Robert is coming here?† When she nodded, a smile broke across his face. Catelyn wished she could share his joy. But she had heard the talk in the yards; a direwolf dead in the snow, a broken antler in its throat. Dread coiled within her like a snake, but she forced herself to smile at this man she loved, this man who put no faith in signs. â€Å"I knew that would please you,† she said. â€Å"We should send word to your brother on the Wall.† â€Å"Yes, of course,† he agreed. â€Å"Ben will want to be here. I shall tell Maester Luwin to send his swiftest bird.† Ned rose and pulled her to her feet. â€Å"Damnation, how many years has it been? And he gives us no more notice than this? How many in his party, did the message say?† â€Å"I should think a hundred knights, at the least, with all their retainers, and half again as many freeriders. Cersei and the children travel with them.† â€Å"Robert will keep an easy pace for their sakes,† he said. â€Å"It is just as well. That will give us more time to prepare.† â€Å"The queen's brothers are also in the party,† she told him. Ned grimaced at that. There was small love between him and the queen's family, Catelyn knew. The Lannisters of Casterly Rock had come late to Robert's cause, when victory was all but certain, and he had never forgiven them. â€Å"Well, if the price for Robert's company is an infestation of Lannisters, so be it. It sounds as though Robert is bringing half his court.† â€Å"Where the king goes, the realm follows,† she said. â€Å"It will be good to see the children. The youngest was still sucking at the Lannister woman's teat the last time I saw him. He must be, what, five by now?† â€Å"Prince Tommen is seven,† she told him. â€Å"The same age as Bran. Please, Ned, guard your tongue. The Lannister woman is our queen, and her pride is said to grow with every passing year.† Ned squeezed her hand. â€Å"There must be a feast, of course, with singers, and Robert will want to hunt. I shall send Jory south with an honor guard to meet them on the kingsroad and escort them back. Gods, how are we going to feed them all? On his way already, you said? Damn the man. Damn his royal hide.†

Key Terms Essay

ACEs – an entry in an objects acl that grants permissions toa user or group ACL – A collection of access control entries that defines the access that all users and groups have to an object ATA – A disk interface that uses parallel communications to connect multiple hard drives to a computer Authorization – The process of making sure someone is who they say they are Basic Disk – The default disk type, it can have up to four partitions, three primary and one extended Direct-attached Storage – a computer whith hard drives stored in it Disk Duplexing – Method of fault tolerance, duplicate data is stored on two disks in seperate host adapters Disk Mirroring – Method of fault tolerance, duplicate data is stored on two seperate disks DiskPart. exe – Command line method to do all your disk related deeds Dynamic Disk – Alternative to basic disk, able to have an unlimited number of volumes Effective permissions – A combination of all the permissions from various sources External Drive Array – Hard disks attached to a computer through a network medium File System – A part of the OS for storing and organizing files Folder redirection – A useful feature that lets users save thier files to a network location LUNs – An identifier assigned to a specific component within a SCSI device which enables the SCSI host adapter to send commands to that component. NAS – A dedicated file server that is connected to a network and provides users with file based storage Offline Files – Lets people keep copies of files on their machines so that if the server goes down they can still work Partition Style – The ways disks are organized in windows RAID – Multiple disks working together as pals to do great things such as fault tolerance or increases to read/write speeds SID – Every active directory object gets one of these, kinda like a social security number Security Principal – Whoever is an administrator assigns permissions to SATA – Newer version of ATA that users serial communications Shadow Copies – Makes copies of a file that users can use to restore to vaious times SCSI – Lets computers transfer data to multiple storage devices Standard Permissions – The common special permissions SAN – A dedicated high speed network wevice that connects storage devices to servers.

The Safety and Efficacy of Creatine, Ephedra, and Anabolic-Steroid Precursors

The Safety and Efficacy of Creatine, Ephedra, and Anabolic-Steroid Precursors Free Online Research Papers This paper was used in a 200 level Health and Human Science course. The paper received an A. Review of: â€Å"The Safety and Efficacy of Creatine, Ephedra, and Anabolic-Steroid Precursors† The title of the reviewed article is â€Å"The Safety and Efficacy of Creatine, Ephedra, and Anabolic-Steroid Precursors† by Michael E. Powers, PhD, ATC, CSCS of Shenandoah University. This article is targeted to any athlete who is considering the use of a performance enhancing supplement. The article informs the reader of the three questions that one should always ask before taking a supplement: Is it legal? Is it safe? Does it work? The article proceeds to answer these questions for each supplement in the study. To begin the article Dr. Powers sets some guide lines for a good scientific study. He makes a strong point of why the term â€Å"natural† supplement should not imply in all cases. The studies conducted by manufactures often only involve young, healthy, athletic, individuals. This is not a good representation of the population that has the potential to consume these supplements and thus should be considered before taking. The theory behind creatine is similar to carbohydrate loading. Increased muscle creatine and phosphocreatine would enhance the capacity of the phosphagen energy system. This would then result in a greater resistance to fatigue, and improve performance. The author states that the efficacy of creatine as a performance enhancer remains inconclusive. However, in certain groups of people recovery times have been shown to decrease. The general conclusion from studies listed is that creatine has no negative short term or long term side effects. Ephedra is classifieds as a sympathomimetic alkaloid because it directly stimulates the sympathetic nervous system. Ingestion has failed to improve muscle strength, endurance, and power on its own. However studies that combine the ephedra with the caffeine have shown to significantly increase endurance in studies when placebos were used as the control. However, the side effects associated with ephedra can be quite serious. These side effects ranged from headaches, restlessness, tremors and palpitations to severe hypertension, seizures, and even stroke. DHEA (Dehydroepiandrosterone), A’dione (androstenedione), and A’diol (androstenediol) are androgenic hormones. Although they have very little androgenic activity on their own, they act as precursors to testosterone. High dosages of these supplements did show to increase the levels of testosterone levels and thus improving performance. However the side effects to these supplements are quite serious. Including liver dysfunction, cardiovascular disease, and suppressed testosterone production. The author makes a strong scientific argument to research the supplement you are thinking of consuming. The long term effects can be quite serious and the desired effects can often be marketing hype. Dr. Powers sites 73 different scientifically focused studies with every claim made and thus showing his scientific intent. Being that I tried a variety of supplements I think this article will further assist me in not being lost in the hype of a supplement’s marketing campaign. Also, in many cases the long term effects of supplements appear to have the exact opposite effect of good health. This will greatly effect my choices for the future. I had planned on supplementing my workout routine with creatine to assist in recovery and based on this article I see no reason to remove it from that plan. I have used creatine in the past and know that my body responds well. Overall I am happy to have reviewed this article and feel as though I have more insight on how different supplements work with or against the body. Research Papers on The Safety and Efficacy of Creatine, Ephedra, and Anabolic-Steroid PrecursorsEffects of Television Violence on ChildrenGenetic EngineeringRiordan Manufacturing Production PlanCapital PunishmentThe Relationship Between Delinquency and Drug UseRelationship between Media Coverage and Social andResearch Process Part OnePersonal Experience with Teen PregnancyTrailblazing by Eric AndersonDefinition of Export Quotas

Free sample - First half of Forecasting and Second Half of Forecasting. translation missing

First half of Forecasting and Second Half of Forecasting. First half of Forecasting and Second Half of ForecastingIntroduction Hard Rock Cafe- from one pub in London in 1971 to more than 110 restaurants in more than 40 countries today, became a corporate-wide demand for better forecasting. Hard Rock uses long-range forecasting in setting a capacity plan and intermediate-term forecasting for locking in contracts for leather goods (used in jackets) and for such food items as beef, chicken, and pork. Its short-term sales forecasts are conducted each month, by cafe, and then aggregated for a headquarters view. Designing forecast system Before using forecasting techniques to analyze operations management problems, a manager must make three decisions: (1) what to forecast, (2) what type of forecasting technique to use, and (3) what type of tool to use. We discuss each of these decisions before examining specific forecasting techniques. Deciding the area of forecasting Although some sort of demand estimate is needed for the individual goods or services produced by a company, forecasting total demand for groups or clusters and then deriving individual product or service forecasts may be easiest. Also, selecting the correct unit of measurement (e.g., product or service units or machine-hours) for forecasting may be as important as choosing the best method. Different forecasting applications used at Hard Rock The forecaster's objective is to develop a useful forecast from the information at hand with the technique appropriate for the different characteristics of demand. This choice sometimes involves a trade-off between forecast accuracy and costs, such as software purchases, the time required to develop a forecast, and personnel, training. Two general types of forecasting techniques are used for demand forecasting: qualitative methods and quantitative methods. Lucent's CDP process uses a combination of both methods. Qualitative methods include judgment methods, which translate the opinions of man ­agers, expert opinions, consumer surveys, and sales-force estimates into quantitative estimates. Quantitative methods include causal methods and time-series analysis. Causal methods use historical data on independent variables, such as promotional campaigns, economic conditions, and competitors' actions, to predict demand. Time-series analysis is a statistical approach that relies heavily on historical demand data to project the future size of demand and recognizes trends and seasonal patterns. Hsiao.J.C. and D.SCleaver, 1982 Management Science, Houghton Mufflin Company, Boston.    A key factor in choosing the proper forecasting approach is the time horizon for the decision requiring forecasts. Forecasts can be made for the short term, medium term, and long term. SHORT TERM: In the short term managers typ ­ically are interested in forecasts of demand for individual products or services. There is little time to react to errors in demand forecasts, so forecasts need to be as accurate as possible for planning purposes. Time-series analysis is the method most often used for short-term forecasting. It is a relatively inexpensive and accurate way to generate the large number of forecasts required. Although causal models can be used for short-term forecasts, they are not used extensively for this purpose because they are much more costly than time-series analysis and require more time to develop. In the short term, operations managers rarely can wait for development of causal models, even though they may be more accurate than time-series models. Finally, managers use judgment methods for short-term forecasts when historical data are not available for a specific item, such as a new product. However, these forecast techniques also are more expensive than forecasts generated from time-series analysis. MEDIUM TERM: The time horizon for the medium term is three months to two years into the future. The need for medium-term forecasts relates to capacity planning. The level of forecast detail required is not as great as for the short term. Managers typically forecast total sales demand in dollars or in the number of units of a group (or family) of similar products or services. Causal models are commonly used for medium-term fore ­casts. These models typically do a good job of estimating the timing of turning points, as when slow sales growth will turn into rapid decline, which is useful to operations managers in both the medium and the long term. Some judgment methods of forecasting also are helpful in identifying turning points. As we mentioned earlier, however, they are most often used when no historical data exist. Time-series analysis typically does not yield accurate results in the medium or long term primarily because it assumes that existing patterns will continue in the future. Although this assumption may be valid for the short term, it is less accurate over longer time horizons. LONG TERM: For time horizons exceeding two years, forecasts usually are developed for total sales demand in dollars or some other common unit of measurement (e.g., barrels, pounds, or kilowatts). Accurate long-term forecasts of demand for individual products or services not only are very difficult to make but also are too detailed for long-range planning purposes. Three types of decisions- facility location, capacity planning, and process choice- require market demand estimates for an extended period into the future. Causal models and judgment methods are the primary techniques used for long-term forecasting. However, even mathematically derived causal-model forecasts have to be tempered by managerial experience and judgment because of the time horizon involved and the potential consequences of decisions based on them. POS system in forecasting at Hard Rock JUDGMENT METHODS When adequate historical data are lacking, as when a new product is introduced or technology is expected to change, firms rely on managerial judgment and experience to generate forecasts. Judgment methods can also be used to modify forecasts generated by quantitative methods, as is done with Lucent's forecasting process. In this section, we discuss four of the more successful methods currently in use: sales-force estimates, executive opinion, market research, and the Delphi method. SALES-FORCE ESTIMATES Sometimes the best information about future demand comes from the people closest to the customer. Sales-force estimates are forecasts compiled from estimates of future demands made periodically by members of a company's sales force. This approach has several advantages. The sales force is the group most likely to know which products or services customers will be buying in the near future, and in what quantities. Sales territories often are divided by district or region. The forecasts of individual sales-force members can be combined easily to get regional or national sales.  Ã‚   Salespeople may not always be able to detect the difference between what a customer "wants" (a wish list) and what a customer "needs" (a necessary purchase).   If the firm uses individual sales as a performance measure, salespeople may underestimate their forecasts so that their performance will look good when they exceed their projections or may work hard only until they reach then-required minimum sales. Name several variables that would be good predictors of daily sales and how could this information be gathered and used at each cafà © CAUSAL METHODS; LINEAR REGRESSION  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Causal methods are used when historical data are available and the relationship between the factor to be forecasted and other external or internal factors can be identified. These relationships are expressed in math ­ematical terms and can be very complex. Causal methods provide the most sophisticated forecasting tools and are very good for predicting turning points in demand and preparing long-range forecasts. Although many causal methods are available, we focus here on lin ­ear regression, one of the best-known and most commonly used causal methods. In linear regression, one variable, called a dependent variable, is related to one or more independent variables by a linear equation. The dependent variable, such as demand for doorknobs, is the one the manager wants to forecast. The independent variables, such as advertising expenditures and new housing starts, are assumed to affect the dependent variable and thereby "cause" the results observed in the past. A linear regression line relates to the data. In technical terms, the regression line minimizes the squared deviations from the actual data. In the simplest linear regression models, the dependent variable is a function of only one independent variable, and therefore the theoretical relationship is a straight line: Y = a + bX  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   ';-':  Ã‚  Ã‚   ' Y = dependent variable X = independent variable a = Y-intercept of the line b = slope of the line The objective of linear regression analysis is to find values of a and b that minimize the sum of the squared deviations of the actual data points from the graphed line. Computer programs are used for this purpose. For any set of matched observations for Y and X, the program computes the values of a and b and provides measures of fore ­cast accuracy. Three measures commonly reported are the sample correlation coeffi ­cient, the sample coefficient of determination, and the standard error of the estimate. The sample correlation coefficient, r, measures the direction and strength of the relationship between the independent variable and the dependent variable. The value of r varies from -1.00 to +1.00. A correlation coefficient of +1.00 implies that period-by-period changes in direction (increases or decreases) of the independent variable are always accompanied by changes in the same direction by the dependent variable. How is forecasting carried out as an effective weapon in a company? Executive opinion- It is a fore ­casting method in which the opinions, experience, and technical knowledge of one or more managers are summarized to arrive at a single forecast. EXECUTIVE OPINION When a new product or service is contemplated, the sales force may not be able make accurate demand estimates. Executive opinion is a forecasting method in w the opinions, experience, and technical knowledge of one or more managers are summarized to arrive at a single forecast. As we discuss later, executive opinion can be use to modify an existing sales forecast to account for unusual circumstances, such as a new sales promotion or unexpected international events. Executive opinion can ate be used for technological forecasting. The quick pace of technological change make keeping abreast of the latest advances difficult Executive opinion can I costly because it takes valuable executive time. When actual sales are much lower than the forecasts, everyone blames someone else for the extra inventory that was created. Hence, the key to effective use of executive opinion is to ensure that the forecast reflects not a series of independent modifications but consensus among executives on a si ngle forecast. MARKET RESEARCH Market research is a systematic approach to determine consumer interest in a product or service by creating and testing hypotheses through data-gathering surveys. Market research may be used to forecast demand for the short, medium, and long term. Accuracy is excellent for the short term, good for the medium term, and only fair for the long term. Although market research yields important information, one short ­coming is the numerous qualifications and hedges typically included in the findings. For example, a finding might be "The new diet burger product received good customer acceptance in our survey; however, we were unable to assess its longer-term acceptance once other competitor products make their appearance." Another is that the typical response rate for mailed questionnaires is poor. Yet another shortcoming is the possibility that the survey results do not reflect the opinions of the market. Finally, the survey might produce imitative, rather than innova ­tive, ideas because the customer's reference point is often limited. T.F. Dodd, 1974, Sales Forecasting, Gower Press, England DELPHI METHOD This form of forecasting is useful when there are no his ­torical data from which to develop statistical models and when managers inside the firm have no experience on which to base informed projections. A coordinator sends a question to each member of the group of outside experts, who may not even know who else, is participating. Anonymity is important when some members of the group tend to dominate discussion or command a high degree of respect in their fields. In an anonymous group, the members tend to respond to the questions and support their responses freely. The coordinator prepares a statistical summary of the responses along with a summary of arguments for particular responses. The report is sent to the same group for another round, and the participants may choose to modify their previous responses. The Delphi method can be used to develop long-range forecasts of product demand and new-product sales projections. It can also be used for technological forecasting. The Delphi method can be used to obtain a consensus from a panel of experts who can devote their attention to following scientific advances, changes in society, governmental regulations, and the competitive environment. The results can provide direction for a firm's research and development staff. The Delphi method has some shortcomings, including the following major ones: The process can take a long time (sometimes a year or more). During that time, the panel of people considered to be experts may change, confounding the results or at least further lengthening the process.   Responses may be less meaningful than if experts were accountable for their responses.   There is little evidence that Delphi forecasts achieve high degrees of accuracy. However, they are known to be fair to good in identifying turning points in new-product demand. How is forecasting carried out in your organization (be sure to specify the level you are discussing)? 2) How does that relate to product development and services it offers? 3) What are the difficulties your organization faces most in coming up with accurate forecasts? Could they improve their forecasts by using different methods? GUIDELINES FOR USING JUDGMENT FORECASTS Judgment forecasting is clearly needed when no quantitative data are available to use quantitative forecasting approaches. However, judgment approaches can be used in concert with quantitative approaches to improve forecast quality. Among the guide ­lines for the use of judgment to adjust the results of quantitative forecasts are the fol ­lowing - Adjust Quantitative Forecasts When Their Track Record Is Poor and the Decision Maker Has Important Contextual Knowledge.  Ã‚  Ã‚   Contextual knowledge is knowledge that practitioners gain through experience, such as cause-and-effect relationships, environmental cues, and organizational information, that may have an effect on the variable being forecast. Often, these factors cannot be incorporated into quantitative forecasting approaches. The quality of forecasts generated by quantitative approaches also deteriorates as the variability of the data increases, particularly for time series. The more variable the data, the more likely it is that judgment forecasting will improve the forecasts. Consequently, the decision maker can bring valuable contextual information to the forecasting process when the quantitative approaches alone are inadequate. Make Adjustments to Quantitative Forecasts to Compensate for Specific Events.  Ã‚  Ã‚   Specific events such as advertising campaigns, the actions of competitors, or international developments often are not recognized in quantitative forecasting and should be acknowledged when a final forecast is being made. In the remainder of this chapter, we focus on the commonly used quantitative fore ­casting approaches. Conclusion Since Hard Rock Cafà © is a company founded at the end of 1971 based at a single site in London,   its growth is awesome. Within a very short time, the company has come to a great summit of success. From this modest start in 1971, the number and geographical spread of the customers have increased rapidly in part as a result of the company’s effective marketing strategies. These are very evident sources that the company has come through these desired objectives mentioned.       References 1. John C Chambers, Satinder K. Mullick and Donald. D. Smith, 1971, How to choose the right forecasting technique, Harvard business Review, July-August2. T.F. Dodd, 1974, Sales Forecasting, Gower Press, England.3. David .M. Georgoff and Robert Gmrdick, 1986, Manager’s Guide to forecasting, Harvard Business Review, January - February.4. Dunn, R. And K.D.Ramasingh, 1981, Management Science, Macmillan Publishing Co. Inc. Bombay.5. J.L.Riggs, Engineering Economics, McGraw-Hill.N.Y.2nd ed., 1982.Ch.3.6. Burns.T. and Stalker.G,The Management of Innovations, London : Tavistock Publications,1961.7. Foster, Douglas, 1982, Mastering Marketing, The Macmillan Press Ltd.8. Goldhar.J.D.MJelinek,1983 Plan for Economics for Scope, in Harvard Business Review, December.

The expert system of Knowledge Management Assignment - 1

The expert system of Knowledge Management - Assignment Example First, they are prone to human errors, the people who compile the information may not have been accurate in that field, and this means that application of that knowledge will tend to be misleading. For this case, human beings are designing expert based technologies in different fields. This technology is expected to provide intelligence to human beings in solving challenges in the different areas. As a consultant I would advocate for the use of experts systems over knowledge based systems. The process of solving a problem starts with application of facts which are known and proceeding to complex ones in the specific field (Maher, 1986). This path of search has to move from the real problem to the solution or objective in question. The expert system is however challenged by a few rules that govern it. First, it should be understood that the experts system has to rely on human knowledge. The system acquires this knowledge though practice over time. Each information is fed into the syst em to make it effective. Human beings have the mandate of collecting the small pieces of information and accumulating it in a knowledge base. Expert systems may not be resourceful in reasoning about the processes which are involved. This implies that for an expert system to be effective, a human expert must feed information into it (Szakwani, 2007). One of the main advantages with an expert system is that it is able to make solutions to problems that would rather have involved a specialized expert, who in this case is a human being.